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The HyMeX modelling strategy
The modelling strategy associated with the observation strategy includes, among others:
The development of regional coupled systems (ocean-atmosphere, land-atmosphere, ocean-land-atmosphere) to reduce uncertainties on the regional projections of future climate. The validation of such systems includes measuring their capability to accurately simulate the Mediterranean water budget using the HyMeX multidisciplinary database.
The improvement of convective-scale deterministic forecast systems to improve the capability to predict Mediterranean high-impact weather events. HyMeX field campaigns should provide a unique high-resolution database to validate the new-generation high-resolution models that have recently been introduced by national meteorological centers in their operational NWP suite. Such data include: microphysical properties obtained by polarimetric radars or aircraft measurements, marine boundary layer characteristics and air-sea flux measurements by buoys or by instrumented research vessels, novel or high-resolution moisture measurements (GPS delays on board ships, radar refractivity, water vapour from lidar, etc).
The design of high-resolution ensemble modelling systems dedicated to the study of the predictability of Mediterranean heavy precipitation and severe cyclogenesis. Quantifying and rating the different sources of uncertainty at various scales that impact the forecast of Mediterranean intense events is one goal of HyMeX through the design of multiscale and nested ensemble forecast systems, possibly based on mesoscale ensemble data assimilation techniques. Some of these systems will run in real-time during the SOPs to guide the deployment of dedicated instrumentation.
The coupling of these ensemble forecast systems with hydrological models to issue probabilistic forecasts of the impact in terms of hydrological response. Advances in the knowledge of the hydrological and hydraulic responses as well as of the soil water content state before and during the precipitation events should help to improve the initialisation and process representation within the hydrological models used.
The development of new process modelling, parameterisation development, novel data assimilation systems for the different Earth compartments. For example, the improvement of air-sea flux parameterisations or development of data assimilation in cloud and precipitation systems are major objectives of HyMeX and part of the observation strategy is designed to serve these objectives.
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