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Archive
by Bouttier, F., Raynaud, L., Nuissier, O. and Ménétrier, B.
Abstract:
The AROME-EPS convection-permitting ensemble prediction system has been evaluated over the HyMeX-SOP1 period. Objective verification scores are computed using dense observing networks prepared for the HyMeX experiment. In probabilistic terms, the AROME-EPS ensemble performs better than the AROME-France deterministic prediction system, and a state-of-the-art ensemble at a lower resolution. The strengths and weaknesses of AROME-EPS are discussed. Here, impact experiments are used to study perturbation schemes for the initial conditions and the model surface. Both have a significant effect on the ensemble performance. The interactions between the perturbations of lateral boundaries, initial conditions and surface perturbations are studied. The consistency between initial and lateral perturbations is found to be unimportant from a meteorological point of view. Ensemble data assimilation is not as effective as a simpler surface perturbation scheme, and it is noted that both approaches could be usefully combined.
Reference:
Bouttier, F., Raynaud, L., Nuissier, O. and Ménétrier, B., 2016: Sensitivity of the AROME ensemble to initial and surface perturbations during HyMeXQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142, 390-403.
Bibtex Entry:
@Article{Bouttier2016,
  Title                    = {Sensitivity of the AROME ensemble to initial and surface perturbations during HyMeX},
  Author                   = {Bouttier, F. and Raynaud, L. and Nuissier, O. and Ménétrier, B.},
  Journal                  = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
  Year                     = {2016},

  Month                    = {August},
  Number                   = {S1},
  Pages                    = {390-403},
  Volume                   = {142},

  Abstract                 = {The AROME-EPS convection-permitting ensemble prediction system has been evaluated over the HyMeX-SOP1 period. Objective verification scores are computed using dense observing networks prepared for the HyMeX experiment. In probabilistic terms, the AROME-EPS ensemble performs better than the AROME-France deterministic prediction system, and a state-of-the-art ensemble at a lower resolution. The strengths and weaknesses of AROME-EPS are discussed. Here, impact experiments are used to study perturbation schemes for the initial conditions and the model surface. Both have a significant effect on the ensemble performance. The interactions between the perturbations of lateral boundaries, initial conditions and surface perturbations are studied. The consistency between initial and lateral perturbations is found to be unimportant from a meteorological point of view. Ensemble data assimilation is not as effective as a simpler surface perturbation scheme, and it is noted that both approaches could be usefully combined.},
  Copublication            = {4: 4 Fr},
  Doi                      = {10.1002/qj.2622},
  Keywords                 = {Atmospheric model; numerical weather prediction; AROME model; HyMeX observations; ensemble prediction; surface perturbations; ensemble data assimilation;},
  Owner                    = {hymexw},
  Timestamp                = {2016.08.26},
  Url                      = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2622/abstract}
}