Home About HyMeX
Motivations
Science questions
Observation strategy
Modelling strategy
Target areas
Key documents
Organisation
International coordination
Working groups
Task teams
National contributions
Endorsements
Resources
Database
Data policy
Publications
Education and summer schools
Drifting balloons (BAMED)
SOP web page
Google maps data visualisation
Workshops Projects
ASICS-MED
MOBICLIMEX
MUSIC
IODA-MED
REMEMBER
FLOODSCALE
EXAEDRE
Offers Links Contacts
Science & Task teams
Science teams
Task teams
Implementation plan
Coordination
International Scientific Steering Committee (ISSC)
Executive Committee for Implementation and Science Coordination (EC-ISC)
Executive Committee - France (EC-Fr)
HyMeX France
HyMeX Italy
HyMeX Spain
Archive
by Dumas, P., Hallegatte, S., Quintana-Seguí, P. and Martin, E.
Abstract:
This paper proposes a methodology to project the possible evolution of river flood damages due to climate change, and applies it to mainland France. Its main contributions are (i) to demonstrate a methodology to investigate the full causal chain from global climate change to local economic flood losses; (ii) to show that future flood losses may change in a very significant manner over France; (iii) to show that a very large uncertainty arises from the climate downscaling technique, since two techniques with comparable skills at reproducing reference river flows give very different estimates of future flows, and thus of future local losses. The main conclusion is thus that estimating future flood losses is still out of reach, especially at local scale, but that future national-scale losses may change significantly over this century, requiring policy changes in terms of risk management and land-use planning.
Reference:
Dumas, P., Hallegatte, S., Quintana-Seguí, P. and Martin, E., 2013: The influence of climate change on flood risks in France – first estimates and uncertainty analysisNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 809-821.
Bibtex Entry:
@Article{Dumas2013,
  Title                    = {The influence of climate change on flood risks in France – first estimates and uncertainty analysis},
  Author                   = {Dumas, P. and Hallegatte, S. and Quintana-Seguí, P. and Martin, E.},
  Journal                  = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Science},
  Year                     = {2013},

  Month                    = {March},
  Number                   = {3},
  Pages                    = {809-821},
  Volume                   = {13},

  Abstract                 = {This paper proposes a methodology to project the possible evolution of river flood damages due to climate change, and applies it to mainland France. Its main contributions are (i) to demonstrate a methodology to investigate the full causal chain from global climate change to local economic flood losses; (ii) to show that future flood losses may change in a very significant manner over France; (iii) to show that a very large uncertainty arises from the climate downscaling technique, since two techniques with comparable skills at reproducing reference river flows give very different estimates of future flows, and thus of future local losses. The main conclusion is thus that estimating future flood losses is still out of reach, especially at local scale, but that future national-scale losses may change significantly over this century, requiring policy changes in terms of risk management and land-use planning.},
  Copublication            = {4: 3 Fr, 1 Es},
  Doi                      = {10.5194/nhess-13-809-2013},
  Owner                    = {hymexw},
  Timestamp                = {2016.01.07},
  Url                      = {http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/13/809/2013/}
}