Home About HyMeX
Motivations
Science questions
Observation strategy
Modelling strategy
Target areas
Key documents
Organisation
International coordination
Working groups
Task teams
National contributions
Endorsements
Resources
Database
Data policy
Publications
Education and summer schools
Drifting balloons (BAMED)
SOP web page
Google maps data visualisation
Workshops Projects
ASICS-MED
MOBICLIMEX
MUSIC
IODA-MED
REMEMBER
FLOODSCALE
EXAEDRE
Offers Links Contacts
Science & Task teams
Science teams
Task teams
Implementation plan
Coordination
International Scientific Steering Committee (ISSC)
Executive Committee for Implementation and Science Coordination (EC-ISC)
Executive Committee - France (EC-Fr)
HyMeX France
HyMeX Italy
HyMeX Spain
Archive
by Gualdi, S., Somot, S., Li, L., Artale, V., Adani, M., Bellucci, A., Braun, A., Calmanti, S., Carillo, A., Dell'Aquilla, A., Déqué, M., Dubois, C., Elizalde, A., Harzallah, A., Jacob, D., L'Heveder, B., May, W., Oddo, P., Ruti, P., Sanna, A., Sannino, G., Scoccimarro, E., Sevault, F. and Navarra, A.
Abstract:
In this article, the authors describe an innovative multimodel system developed within the Climate Change and Impact Research: The Mediterranean Environment (CIRCE) European Union (EU) Sixth Framework Programme (FP6) project and used to produce simulations of the Mediterranean Sea regional climate. The models include high-resolution Mediterranean Sea components, which allow assessment of the role of the basin and in particular of the air–sea feedbacks in the climate of the region. The models have been integrated from 1951 to 2050, using observed radiative forcings during the first half of the simulation period and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario during the second half. The projections show a substantial warming (about 1.5°–2°C) and a significant decrease of precipitation (about 5%) in the region for the scenario period. However, locally the changes might be even larger. In the same period, the projected surface net heat loss decreases, leading to a weaker cooling of the Mediterranean Sea by the atmosphere, whereas the water budget appears to increase, leading the basin to lose more water through its surface than in the past. Overall, these results are consistent with the findings of previous scenario simulations, such as the Prediction of Regional Scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate Change Risks and Effects (PRUDENCE), Ensemble-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts (ENSEMBLES), and phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). The agreement suggests that these findings are robust to substantial changes in the configuration of the models used to make the simulations. Finally, the models produce a 2021–50 mean steric sea level rise that ranges between +7 and +12 cm, with respect to the period of reference.
Reference:
Gualdi, S., Somot, S., Li, L., Artale, V., Adani, M., Bellucci, A., Braun, A., Calmanti, S., Carillo, A., Dell'Aquilla, A., Déqué, M., Dubois, C., Elizalde, A., Harzallah, A., Jacob, D., L'Heveder, B., May, W., Oddo, P., Ruti, P., Sanna, A., Sannino, G., Scoccimarro, E., Sevault, F. and Navarra, A., 2013: The CIRCE Simulations: Regional Climate Change Projections with Realistic Representation of the Mediterranean SeaBulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 94, 65-81.
Bibtex Entry:
@Article{Gualdi2013,
  Title                    = {The {CIRCE} Simulations: Regional Climate Change Projections with Realistic Representation of the Mediterranean Sea},
  Author                   = {Gualdi, S. and Somot, S. and Li, L. and Artale, V. and Adani, M. and Bellucci, A. and Braun, A. and Calmanti, S. and Carillo, A. and Dell'Aquilla, A. and Déqué, M. and Dubois, C. and Elizalde, A. and Harzallah, A. and Jacob, D. and L'Heveder, B. and May, W. and Oddo, P. and Ruti, P. and Sanna, A. and Sannino, G. and Scoccimarro, E. and Sevault, F. and Navarra, A.},
  Journal                  = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
  Year                     = {2013},

  Month                    = {Jan},
  Number                   = {1},
  Pages                    = {65-81},
  Volume                   = {94},

  Abstract                 = {In this article, the authors describe an innovative multimodel system developed within the Climate Change and Impact Research: The Mediterranean Environment (CIRCE) European Union (EU) Sixth Framework Programme (FP6) project and used to produce simulations of the Mediterranean Sea regional climate. The models include high-resolution Mediterranean Sea components, which allow assessment of the role of the basin and in particular of the air–sea feedbacks in the climate of the region.

The models have been integrated from 1951 to 2050, using observed radiative forcings during the first half of the simulation period and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario during the second half.

The projections show a substantial warming (about 1.5°–2°C) and a significant decrease of precipitation (about 5%) in the region for the scenario period. However, locally the changes might be even larger. In the same period, the projected surface net heat loss decreases, leading to a weaker cooling of the Mediterranean Sea by the atmosphere, whereas the water budget appears to increase, leading the basin to lose more water through its surface than in the past. Overall, these results are consistent with the findings of previous scenario simulations, such as the Prediction of Regional Scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate Change Risks and Effects (PRUDENCE), Ensemble-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts (ENSEMBLES), and phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). The agreement suggests that these findings are robust to substantial changes in the configuration of the models used to make the simulations.

Finally, the models produce a 2021–50 mean steric sea level rise that ranges between +7 and +12 cm, with respect to the period of reference.},
  Copublication            = {24: 13 It, 7 Fr, 2 De, 1 Tunisia, 1 Denmark},
  Doi                      = {10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00136.1},
  ISSN                     = {{0003-0007}},
  Owner                    = {hymexw},
  Timestamp                = {2016.01.07},
  Unique-id                = {ISI:000314776500008},
  Url                      = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00136.1}
}