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by Jordà, G., Gomis, D., Álvarez-Fanjul, E. and Somot, S.
Abstract:
The contribution of atmospheric pressure and wind to the \XXI\ century sea level variability in Southern Europe is explored under different climate change scenarios. The barotropic version of the \HAMSOM\ model is forced with the output of the atmospheric \ARPEGE\ model run under scenarios B1, \A1B\ and A2. Additionally, a control simulation forced by observed SST, \GHGs\ and aerosols concentrations for the period 1950–2000 and a hindcast forced by a dynamical downscalling of \ERA40\ for the period 1958–2001 are also run using the same models. The hindcast results have been validated against tide gauge observations showing good agreement with correlations around 0.8 and root mean square error of 3.2&xa0;cm. A careful comparison between the control simulation and the hindcast shows a reasonably good agreement between both runs in statistical terms, which points towards the reliability of the modelling system when it is forced only by \GHG\ and aerosols concentrations. The results for the \XXI\ century indicate a sea level decrease that would be especially strong in winter, with trends of up to −&xa0;0.8&xa0;±&xa0;0.1&xa0;mm/year in the central Mediterranean under the \A2\ scenario. Trends in summer are small but positive ( &xa0;0.05&xa0;±&xa0;0.04&xa0;mm/yr), then leading to an increase in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle. The interannual variability also shows some changes, the most important being a widespread standard deviation increase of up to 40%. An increase in the frequency of positive phases of the \NAO\ explains part of the winter negative trends. Also, an increase in the \NAO\ variability would be responsible for the projected increase of the interannual variability of the atmospheric component of sea level. Conversely, the intra-annual variability (1–12&xa0;months excluding the seasonal cycle) does not show significant changes.
Reference:
Jordà, G., Gomis, D., Álvarez-Fanjul, E. and Somot, S., 2012: Atmospheric contribution to Mediterranean and nearby Atlantic sea level variability under different climate change scenariosGlobal and Planetary Change, 80–81, 198-214.
Bibtex Entry:
@Article{Jorda2012,
  Title                    = {Atmospheric contribution to Mediterranean and nearby Atlantic sea level variability under different climate change scenarios},
  Author                   = {Jordà, G. and Gomis, D. and Álvarez-Fanjul, E. and Somot,S.},
  Journal                  = {Global and Planetary Change},
  Year                     = {2012},

  Month                    = {January},
  Number                   = {0},
  Pages                    = {198-214},
  Volume                   = {80–81},

  Abstract                 = {The contribution of atmospheric pressure and wind to the \{XXI\} century sea level variability in Southern Europe is explored under different climate change scenarios. The barotropic version of the \{HAMSOM\} model is forced with the output of the atmospheric \{ARPEGE\} model run under scenarios B1, \{A1B\} and A2. Additionally, a control simulation forced by observed SST, \{GHGs\} and aerosols concentrations for the period 1950–2000 and a hindcast forced by a dynamical downscalling of \{ERA40\} for the period 1958–2001 are also run using the same models. The hindcast results have been validated against tide gauge observations showing good agreement with correlations around 0.8 and root mean square error of 3.2 cm. A careful comparison between the control simulation and the hindcast shows a reasonably good agreement between both runs in statistical terms, which points towards the reliability of the modelling system when it is forced only by \{GHG\} and aerosols concentrations. The results for the \{XXI\} century indicate a sea level decrease that would be especially strong in winter, with trends of up to − 0.8 ± 0.1 mm/year in the central Mediterranean under the \{A2\} scenario. Trends in summer are small but positive (~ 0.05 ± 0.04 mm/yr), then leading to an increase in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle. The interannual variability also shows some changes, the most important being a widespread standard deviation increase of up to 40%. An increase in the frequency of positive phases of the \{NAO\} explains part of the winter negative trends. Also, an increase in the \{NAO\} variability would be responsible for the projected increase of the interannual variability of the atmospheric component of sea level. Conversely, the intra-annual variability (1–12 months excluding the seasonal cycle) does not show significant changes.},
  Copublication            = {4: 3 Es, 1 Fr},
  Doi                      = {10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.10.013},
  ISSN                     = {0921-8181},
  Keywords                 = {climate change;},
  Owner                    = {hymexw},
  Timestamp                = {2016.01.08},
  Url                      = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818111002001}
}