Home About HyMeX
Motivations
Science questions
Observation strategy
Modelling strategy
Target areas
Key documents
Organisation
International coordination
Working groups
Task teams
National contributions
Endorsements
Resources
Database
Data policy
Publications
Education and summer schools
Drifting balloons (BAMED)
SOP web page
Google maps data visualisation
Workshops Projects
ASICS-MED
MOBICLIMEX
MUSIC
IODA-MED
REMEMBER
FLOODSCALE
EXAEDRE
Offers Links Contacts
Science & Task teams
Science teams
Task teams
Implementation plan
Coordination
International Scientific Steering Committee (ISSC)
Executive Committee for Implementation and Science Coordination (EC-ISC)
Executive Committee - France (EC-Fr)
HyMeX France
HyMeX Italy
HyMeX Spain
Archive
by N'Guyen, C. C., Payrastre, O. and Gaume, E.
Abstract:
This paper presents a detailed comparison of several local and regional flood frequency analysis approaches, with a special focus on the effects of (1) the availability of information on extreme floods (historical data or floods observed at ungauged sites), and (2) - the assumptions associated with regional approaches (statistical homogeneity of considered series, independency between observations). Four flood frequency estimation approaches are compared: (1) local analysis, (2) local analysis with historical information, (3) regional index flood analysis based on stream gauge series, (4)regional analysis involving information on extremes (including both historical floods and recent floods observed at ungauged sites). The inference approach used (GEV distribution and Bayesian approach for parameter estimation) enables to represent the effects of the analysed datasets on the accuracy of the estimated quantiles. The results presented are based on two case studies: the Ardeche and Var regions in south east of France. The comparison relies both (1) available observed datasets, and (2) Monte Carlo simulations in order to generalize the conclusions and to simulate the effects of possible regional heterogeneities. The obtained results indicate that even a relatively limited level of heterogeneity, that may not be detected by classical homogeneity tests, may highly affect the performances of the regional approaches. However, the information on extreme floods, historical floods or recent estimated extremes at ungauged sites, generally enable to drastically reduce the uncertainties of statistical estimations. As far as possible, gathering of such information and incorporating it into flood frequency studies should be promoted.
Reference:
N'Guyen, C. C., Payrastre, O. and Gaume, E., 2015: Reducing uncertainties on low probability flood peak discharge quantile estimates: comparison of historical and/or regional approachesLa Houille Blanche, 3, 64-71.
Bibtex Entry:
@Article{NGuyen2015,
  Title                    = {Reducing uncertainties on low probability flood peak discharge quantile estimates: comparison of historical and/or regional approaches},
  Author                   = {N'Guyen, C. C. and Payrastre, O. and Gaume, E.},
  Journal                  = {La Houille Blanche},
  Year                     = {2015},

  Month                    = {June},
  Pages                    = {64-71},
  Volume                   = {3},

  Abstract                 = {This paper presents a detailed comparison of several local and regional flood frequency analysis approaches, with a special focus on the effects of (1) the availability of information on extreme floods (historical data or floods observed at ungauged sites), and (2) - the assumptions associated with regional approaches (statistical homogeneity of considered series, independency between observations). Four flood frequency estimation approaches are compared: (1) local analysis, (2) local analysis with historical information, (3) regional index flood analysis based on stream gauge series, (4)regional analysis involving information on extremes (including both historical floods and recent floods observed at ungauged sites). The inference approach used (GEV distribution and Bayesian approach for parameter estimation) enables to represent the effects of the analysed datasets on the accuracy of the estimated quantiles. The results presented are based on two case studies: the Ardeche and Var regions in south east of France. The comparison relies both (1) available observed datasets, and (2) Monte Carlo simulations in order to generalize the conclusions and to simulate the effects of possible regional heterogeneities. The obtained results indicate that even a relatively limited level of heterogeneity, that may not be detected by classical homogeneity tests, may highly affect the performances of the regional approaches. However, the information on extreme floods, historical floods or recent estimated extremes at ungauged sites, generally enable to drastically reduce the uncertainties of statistical estimations. As far as possible, gathering of such information and incorporating it into flood frequency studies should be promoted.},
  Copublication            = {3: 2 Fr, 1 Viet Nam},
  Doi                      = {10.1051/lhb/20150035},
  Keywords                 = {Flood, Frequency, Regional analyses, Bayesian methods},
  Owner                    = {hymexw},
  Timestamp                = {2015.10.09},
  Url                      = {http://www.shf-lhb.org/articles/lhb/abs/2015/03/lhb20150035/lhb20150035.html}
}