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by Payrastre, O., Gaume, E. and Andrieu, H.
Abstract:
This paper explores the links between the detail of available information on historical floods (length of historical period, number of documented floods, accuracy of peak discharge estimates), and the value of this information for the estimation of flood quantiles. The results presented here are mainly based on simulations, and aim to complement, in a more general framework, the results of a case study (Aude region in France) presented in Payrastre [2005, 2006]. Based on simulated series and on a GEV candidate distribution, a Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain inference approach is used in order to provide credibility intervals on the estimated 100-year quantiles. The width of these credibility intervals reflects the information content of the series used for the inference. Based on this approach, the Aude case study clearly showed a great added value of available historical information. A sensitivity analysis to the characteristics of historical information used is conducted here based on simulations. The following situations are considered: 1 – no historical data available, 2 – historical information limited to the main flood that occurred during the historical period, 3 – binomial historical information (number of floods that exceeded the perception threshold), 4 - peak discharges of historical floods are known with uncertainty, 5 – accurate information on historical floods peak discharges is available. The sensitivities to length of the historical period considered and to the level of the perception threshold are also considered. The results confirm the great effect of the length of the historical period documented, but also illustrate the limited sensitivity to the return period of the perception threshold, and the limited added value of information on the peak discharges of historical floods. Lastly, the possible effect of bias of estimation of historical discharges (concerning both the perception threshold and historical floods) is illustrated.
Reference:
Payrastre, O., Gaume, E. and Andrieu, H., 2013: Historical information and flood frequency analyses: which optimal features for historical floods inventories?Houille Blanche-revue Internationale De L Eau, 3, 5-11.
Bibtex Entry:
@Article{Payrastre2013,
  Title                    = {Historical information and flood frequency analyses: which optimal features for historical floods inventories?},
  Author                   = {Payrastre, O. and Gaume, E. and Andrieu, H.},
  Journal                  = {Houille Blanche-revue Internationale De L Eau},
  Year                     = {2013},
  Pages                    = {5-11},
  Volume                   = {3},

  Abstract                 = {This paper explores the links between the detail of available information on historical floods (length of historical period, number of documented floods, accuracy of peak discharge estimates), and the value of this information for the estimation of flood quantiles. The results presented here are mainly based on simulations, and aim to complement, in a more general framework, the results of a case study (Aude region in France) presented in Payrastre [2005, 2006]. Based on simulated series and on a GEV candidate distribution, a Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain inference approach is used in order to provide credibility intervals on the estimated 100-year quantiles. The width of these credibility intervals reflects the information content of the series used for the inference. Based on this approach, the Aude case study clearly showed a great added value of available historical information. A sensitivity analysis to the characteristics of historical information used is conducted here based on simulations. The following situations are considered: 1 – no historical data available, 2 – historical information limited to the main flood that occurred during the historical period, 3 – binomial historical information (number of floods that exceeded the perception threshold), 4 - peak discharges of historical floods are known with uncertainty, 5 – accurate information on historical floods peak discharges is available. The sensitivities to length of the historical period considered and to the level of the perception threshold are also considered. The results confirm the great effect of the length of the historical period documented, but also illustrate the limited sensitivity to the return period of the perception threshold, and the limited added value of information on the peak discharges of historical floods. Lastly, the possible effect of bias of estimation of historical discharges (concerning both the perception threshold and historical floods) is illustrated.},
  Copublication            = {3: 3 Fr},
  Doi                      = {10.1051/lhb/2013019},
  Keywords                 = {flood, historical, discharge, frequency analysis, Bayes},
  Owner                    = {hymexw},
  Timestamp                = {2016.01.08},
  Url                      = {http://www.shf-lhb.org/articles/lhb/abs/2013/03/lhb2013019/lhb2013019.html}
}